Cattle prices experienced expected seasonal weakness in August and September, as a wider variety of spring-born calves began coming to town and consumers moved beyond the last official grilling day of the summer. But prices remain historically high for all classes, in response to dwindling cattle numbers and continued robust consumer beef demand. The fewest beef cows in decades and sluggish herd expansion mean the same bullish supply fundamentals should persist for at least a couple more years.

USDA’s National Weekly Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary provides current price perspective. For the week ending Sept. 20, steers weighing 600-700 lbs. sold for an average price of $399.54/cwt. in the north-central region, which was $130.45 more year over year. For same-weight steers, the average was $390.07 in the south-central region and $359.81 in the Southeast, which was $133.31 and $120.90 more year over year, respectively.

More broadly, Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University (K-State) offered price forecasts from the Livestock Marketing Information Center during the recent K-State Beef Stocker Conference. Projected average prices for Southern Plains steer calves weighing 500-600 lbs. are $395-$405/cwt. this year, $419-$431 next year and $427.42 in 2027. For feeder steers weighing 700-800 lbs. in the same region, prices are forecast to average $323-$328 this year, $344-56 next year and $352-$367 in 2027. That’s with the annual five-area direct weighted average fed steer price projected at $225-$230 this year, $239-$251 next year and $242.457 in 2027.

So, prices should continue to increase, but at a slower pace than the last couple of years.

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) projected feeder steer prices (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) significantly higher than the previous month for the remainder of this year and next, in the September Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

Based on recent price strength, projections increased $10 in the third quarter to $353/cwt. and $18 in the fourth quarter to $363 for an annual average of $323.79, which was $7 higher. ERS estimated prices $12 higher in the first and second quarters of next year at $360 and $362, respectively, for an annual average price of $362.25, which was also $12 higher. 

The ERS also increased expected average five-area direct fed steer prices, compared to last month, in the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). 

Prices increased $2 in the third quarter to $240/cwt. and $4 in the fourth quarter to $244, for an annual average price of $228.56, which was $1.50 more. That was with beef production for this year estimated 100 million pounds less than the previous month at 25.8 billion pounds. The total would be 1.2 billion pounds less (-4.3%) than last year.

Prices for 2026 increased $5 in the first and second quarters to $247 and $248, respectively. The 2026 annual average fed steer price was also $5 higher at $249. 

Border closure shifts regional feedlot inventories

Late-September confirmation of New World screwworm (NWS) in Sabinas Hidalgo, located in the state of Nuevo León, less than 70 miles from the U.S. border, suggests it will be even longer before Mexico can resume importing cattle to the United States.

As it is, closure of the U.S. border to cattle imports from Mexico continues to drive declines in Southern Plains feedlot numbers, while numbers increase in the North.

Reflecting on the September Cattle on Feed report, David Anderson, Extension livestock economist at Texas A&M University notes, Sept. 1 on-feed numbers in Texas were 9.9% fewer year over year and the least for the month since 2016.

Conversely, Anderson points out 4.7% more cattle were on feed year over year in Nebraska and 3.1% more in Kansas. Numbers were also higher in Iowa and South Dakota. 

“Clearly, the border closure to cattle from Mexico is taking its toll,” Anderson explains, in a recent issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Feeder cattle imports from Mexico normally increase seasonally in the Fall, so the disparity in regional feeding inventories is likely to grow, including Nebraska supplanting Texas as the largest cattle feeding state.”

Total cattle on feed Sept. 1 of 11.08 million head were 118,000 head fewer (-1.1%), according to the September Cattle on Feed report. The number represents feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity. Placements of 1.78 million head in August were 196,000 head fewer (-9.9%) than the same time a year earlier.

“Placements have declined more than the on-feed inventory up to this point aided by a slower turnover rate in feedlots,” explains Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Smaller calf crops and limited feeder cattle supplies mean there is less cattle available for feedlot production. Feedlot production and beef production are expected to continue to decline into 2027.”

Trade issues pressure beef exports

Market access obstacles continued to weigh heavily on exports of U.S. beef, with most plants still ineligible to ship to China.

U.S. beef exports declined 19% year over year in July to 89,579 metric tons, and export value dropped 17% to 752.5 million, the lowest value since 2023, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). 

“The plant registration impasse with China unfortunately drags on, and it has left U.S. beef essentially shut out of the market after exporters worked through their eligible inventories,” explains Dan Halstrom USMEF president and CEO. “Demand elsewhere has remained fairly resilient, even in the face of higher pricing, but restoring access to China is clearly the urgent priority. Export value and share of production exported declined in July, reflecting the loss of competing bids from Chinese buyers.” 

From January through July, exports were 8% below last year in volume (691,800 mt) and down 7.5% in value ($5.67 billion).

July beef exports equated to $368.09 per head of fed slaughter, down 12% from a year ago. Through July, the per-head average was down 4% to $403.89.