As I sit here and type this, temperatures are in the 100s all across Central and West Texas. Several consecutive days of this type of weather is really taking a toll. Rain chances have almost been non-existent this month too… The graphic below shows total % of normal rainfall for the past two weeks.

For east/southeast Texas, this is in stark contrast to how the past 60 days have been…

 So, the big question is how long is this going to continue? Granted, it is August and this month can often be hot and dry across Texas and surrounding areas. However, the risk of flash drought conditions developing is very real. To finish the month of August, there will likely be a couple of things happen…1) a weak tropical low moves westward out of the Gulf and will bring some rain to parts of East/Southeast Texas. Obviously, the devil is in the details as to how that plays out. 2) there will be a break in the heat…especially, for areas impacted by the tropical low. Areas farther west will see a small break too, courtesy of a cold front dropping down from the north. However, I fear that heat will come back to western parts of the state and region. 

With that in mind, what does September look like? As we head into the peak of the hurricane season, it is always possible that a tropical feature can change the forecast. The map below shows the forecast rainfall anomaly through September.

As you can see, it largely keeps the wetter than average conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. That doesn’t mean there won’t be rain that moves inland for South/Southeast Texas, but the better prospects appear to linger off coast at this time. Again, it only takes one storm to change that, so it bears watching through the peak of the hurricane season. Farther west, it appears better rain chances will set up after Labor Day. However, there will still likely be a good chunk of drier than average conditions for west Texas.

Temperatures will likely remain above average. The map below is the temperature anomaly forecast for September.

The core of the hottest weather will likely favor the western half of Texas, versus areas farther east. This is pretty typical, given the overall weather pattern…

A short update on La Niña too… We are still observing mainly neutral conditions. Most models keep us that way through September, with a slight tip toward La Niña thereafter.

You can see the various model forecasts above that take us through January. NOAA models have by far been the most aggressive with La Niña development. However, they have also been way too aggressive in developing it and the most incorrect. Most models keep us neutral through the fall and winter, but even a very slight La Niña can have impacts. We will examine that in closer detail next month and the implications that will have on the fall and winter seasons.