As we wrap up April and look back at what it has produced, it has been pretty impressive. Severe thunderstorms and flooding have impacted many areas. Here is the rainfall anomaly (in inches above/below average) for the past 30 days.

We finally put some water in the ground farther west, which was important. However, we continued to see periods of very heavy rain impact many areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and eastward across the Mississippi Valley. In some cases there has been too much rain, and some dry time is needed. Haven’t been able to say that very often over the past few years… However, far South Texas has struggled, and as wet as it has been north, it has been just as dry south.

As I sit here and type (April 28th), another round of locally heavy rain will impact the same areas that have been wet this week. Beyond that, another storm is likely to move through between May 5-8th, and possibly another thereafter. Bottomline, I think May will continue to be wetter than average for a pretty wide area. The map below is the precipitation anomaly forecast for the month of May, from the EURO Weeklies forecast model. While I often times take this model with a grain of salt, it does make some sense in keeping May wetter than average.

While you can’t necessarily take the individual anomaly numbers to the bank, one can certainly see the pattern. It is also possible that we end up with a wet first half of May, and then dry out. Remember, the model isn’t really distinguishing individual days here…it is just offering the trend for May. In fact, I would argue that is likely going to be the case. The first half of May is likely front loaded with moisture, and the second half starts to dry out.

This begs the question… “Has anything changed for the summer?” Well, not really… The main players ares still in place. The EURO seasonal model and the NMME models which came in earlier this month continue to show similar trends for the summer.

EURO Seasonal Model Precipitation Anomaly Forecast June/July/August

EURO Seasonal Model Temperature Anomaly Forecast June/July/August

NMME Model Precipitation Anomaly Forecast June/July/August

NMME Model Temperature Anomaly Forecast June/July/August

So, while it has been great to see some spring rain in many places, this is not the time to turn our back on the pattern. We’ve seen this movie before, when spring moisture turns into summer dryness and drought expansion. While I hope we can keep getting the rain on a more frequent basis this summer, history and the models argue against that for many areas. Enjoy it while it lasts…