Hey folks, I hope the first month of 2025 has been going well for you. I wanted to take this opportunity to look at where we stand with soil moisture, drought and what lies ahead in the short term. Fortunately, most of us are in pretty good shape when it comes to moisture. You can see that in the map below…

The great thing about that map is there just isn’t much regional drought. There are some dry spots in Central and South Texas, but the real bad stuff remains over far Southwest Texas, South/Southwest New Mexico and the rest of the Desert Southwest. However, I do feel that it is important to look at what has happened during the past 60 days.

See the different story being told by that map? The map takes into account precipitation anomalies as a % of “normal” from Dec. 2nd through Feb. 2nd. The farther east you go, the more moisture you have received. The farther west you go and it has been pretty bad… Some areas of Southwest Texas have only received 2% of normal moisture for the past two months. The extreme drought that is occurring over parts of southern New Mexico and southwest Texas will likely only get worse…if that’s possible. And unless something unforeseen happens (rogue big storm), this area will serve as a location for which drought will expand north and northeastward. So, while many of us are in pretty good shape right now, the fact that this level of drought is so close by, makes me nervous for some folks. This is especially true for those areas that border where the extreme drought resides.

So, what lies ahead for the next month or so? Likely more of the same… Fresh long range model data comes out in a few days, so I will be interested to see if that changes at all from what the models said almost a month ago. You can see that below…

EURO Seasonal Model Precipitation Anomaly Forecast February – April

NMME Model Precipitation Anomaly Forecast February – April

Each model has individual thoughts on what will unfold, but the theme is generally the same…drier the farther west and southeast you go…wetter the farther east and northeast you go. This continues to fit well with what has been happening in the pattern. La Niña has likely peaked, but still has a ways to go before exiting. I’ll have more on that coming up next month, along with a more detailed look at what spring and summer could hold for us.