Cattle and beef markets are poised to continue the path of the past few years in 2026. Despite turbulence in the fourth quarter of 2025, cattle markets ended the year strong. Tight cattle supplies, decreased beef production, and strong demand continue to support and elevate cattle and beef prices. Multi-decade lows in cattle inventories are the driving supply force that underpins cattle markets and the market is focused on the cow-calf sector, which holds the key to cattle supplies going forward. The rest of the cattle industry above the cow-calf sector will take their cues from cow-calf producers regarding cattle supplies in 2026 and beyond. Cow-calf producers have a number of factors to consider in the coming year.

Listen to the market

The job of markets is to provide price signals to help producers allocate and use resources to produce products to meet market demands. In the case of cattle markets, price signals indicate what to produce, how much to produce and how resources should be used for that production. Record high calf prices and cow-calf returns are the market’s way of strongly encouraging increased calf production. Moreover, production resources, especially forage resources, should focus on calf production over alternatives such as backgrounding/stocker production. Cheap corn further emphasizes this, encouraging calf production in the country with feedlot placement at relatively lighter weights and finishing as quickly as possible.  

Maintain herd productivity

A top priority for cow-calf producers is to maintain the productivity of the beef cow herd. Three years of declining beef cow slaughter has pulled the beef herd culling rate down to the lowest level in a decade. The net culling rate for the beef cow herd in 2025 is project to be less than 8.4 percent. The average net culling rate for the last 30 years is 10 percent. Low culling rates have allowed producers to sell more heifers in the last three years, but additional heifer retention is needed going forward just to maintain the productivity of the current low cow inventory

Herd growth

Beyond keeping enough heifers to maintain the herd, some producers have further considerations about additional heifer retention to increase herd inventories. Conditions vary widely regarding pasture recovery from previous drought, current status of pastures, expectations/concerns about future forage conditions. Nevertheless, strong calf prices and the slow pace of market response thus far to high prices likely means that more producers are considering some level of restocking and herd growth.

Manage costs

Profit maximization means managing costs as well as increasing revenue. While current calf prices are generating record high per head revenues, complacency about cost management means that producers are not taking full advantage of the current opportunity to maximize profits and build equity. Harvested and purchased feeds are the largest part of annual cow cost of production. Now is a good time to develop grazing plans for forage use and minimizing harvested and purchased feed needs in the coming year.

Manage risk

Despite a general bullish market environment, cattle markets will continue to be subject to considerable uncertainty and market volatility. Most of the market shocks that occur are likely to be short-lived. Having the flexibility to adjust marketing plans by a few days or a few weeks can help to avoid brief market dips. Additionally, producers can consider risk management tools to provide downside risk protection for planned marketing windows. These include LRP insurance or futures options.  Higher average prices are expected so leaving the upside open is important.

 What is a good bull worth in 2026?

Mark Z. Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Breeding Specialist

With the onset of The Cattlemen’s Congress currently taking place in Oklahoma City, the spring 2026 bull buying season has officially started. The full schedule of sales during the Cattlemen’s Congress can be found at https://cattlemenscongress.com/sales/. Bull buying season will continue into the spring months, in Oklahoma and across the nation with progressive seedstock operations offering yearling bulls. Accordingly, it’s time to revisit the age-old question. What is a good bull worth in 2026? 

The Answer

As a student at Oklahoma State University in the mid-1980s, I was taught “A good bull is worth the value of five calves he sires.” It is a good answer and a good rule of thumb to follow; the problem is it doesn’t exactly narrow down the range. As always, we need define “a good bull,” check current market reports, answer some questions about how we intend to market future calf crops, and do some “cowboy math” to arrive at a more precise answer.

What is considered a “good bull”?

For this discussion, qualifications to meet “good bull” status are:

• A bull that sells with a registration paper which includes pedigree information and a complete set of genetic values (including EPDs and Bio-economic indices) to be considered in the selection process.
• A bull that has passed a Breeding Soundness Exam (BSE) and sells with a breeding soundness warranty (terms will vary).
• A bull that will add value to calves sired because he fits your breeding objectives, production system and marketing plans.

When are we marketing our calves?  What is their value?

Using the end of year market prices for 2025 from Dr. Derrell Peel’s article in the December 29^th, 2025 issue of the Cow-Calf Corner newsletter:

 500 lb. weaned steer calves were worth about $4.80/lb. for a value of approximately $2,400 per head. Therefore, if my future marketing plan is to sell weaned steers, $2,400 x 5 = $12,000 is the answer.

 800 lb. yearling steers were worth about $3.50/lb. for a value of $2,800 per head. Therefore, if my future marketing plan is to sell yearling steers, $2,800 x 5 = $14,000 is the answer.

 1,500 lb. finished beef steers were worth $2.29/lb. live for a value of $3,435 each. Therefore, if my future marketing plan is to retain ownership through finishing and sell fed cattle on a live weight basis, $3,435 x 5 = $17,175 is the answer.

 So, in the current market, a good bull is worth somewhere between $12,000 – $17,175 to a commercial cow-calf operation. Where exactly in that range depends on your marketing plan and the market conditions at that time. Not an exact number because there are many variables in play. One key point illustrated here is that the longer you own the offspring before marketing, the greater the value of the bull to your operation. Retained ownership gives you more time and opportunity to capture the value of your investment in genetics. It is noteworthy that we haven’t considered the value added to replacement females a bull will sire. Bulls used to sire the next generation of cows have an even greater long-term economic impact on the profit potential of your operation and should be valued accordingly.

 I encourage cow-calf operations to consider their breeding goals, production system and marketing plan. Doing so should dictate where to apply selection pressure. Genetic values pay when you purchase bulls capable of improving genetic potential for the specific traits that will translate to added value at your intended marketing endpoint.