October 28, 2023
My thinking is that the upcoming winter could be pretty rough for parts of the Plains. The closest analog I can find, which I have shared with you many times, is 1972-73. This is the last time we had a strong east-based El Niño with a negative PDO. However, I can’t find an analog that has a strong east-based El Niño with a STRONGLY negative PDO…like we have now. However, is what October – April of 1972-73 looked like…precipitation and temperature anomalies shown below.
As I have said before, I am also worried that due to the PDO being so negative right now (-2.94), this El Niño event will be short-lived. It will also make it much easier to go back to La Niña later next year. History also shows that we will usually see La Niña reemerge after an El Niño disappears…this doesn’t even factor in the negative PDO issue, which is significant to me. So, I think the first half of 2024 could be wetter than average for a lot of us, but I worry about that shutting off for the back half of 2024. Could the negative PDO cause this El Niño event not to produce moisture for the winter and spring? I suppose it is possible… However, I remain more concerned about the back part of 2024, versus the first part. The maps below from the EURO seasonal model, and from the NMME model, show forecast precipitation and temperature anomalies, for November through January.
Euro Seasonal Model Precipitation Forecast
Euro Seasonal Model Temperature Forecast
NMME Precipitation Forecast
NMME Temperature Forecast
I’ll have another update on this next month. Fingers crossed for some good moisture!