2025 has been a year for record books in the cattle business. We have seen historically high cattle prices at the farm gate and beef prices on the grocery store shelves. We have also seen extreme volatility in the cattle markets caused by uncertainty. The volatility has been reflected by a steep crash in the futures markets and cash cattle suffering immediate losses.

Uncertainty in the marketplace has been fueled by numerous factors, including political statements, bearish commodity traders, and most recently the announcement that Tyson plans to end operations of one major fed cattle packing plant and slow down operations at another.

Renowned business author, Stephen Covey wrote that, “If there’s one thing that’s certain in business, it’s uncertainty”.

In response to the current uncertainty, I would remind you of a couple of things.

• The underlying fundamentals of the current cattle market have not changed. Cattle supply remains limited, and despite high retail prices, demand for quality beef appears to still be strong.
• There are risk management tools available both for cattle feeders and cow-calf operators. Markets have been and will continue to be reactive. Being proactive with a risk management plan whether contracts, options or LRP is key. If there was ever a time to dust off an enterprise budget, say from a land grant university, that time is now in preparation for 2026.

My dairy specialist counterpart likes to remind me that “the cure for high prices is high prices.” While we have seen prices drop recently, nearly $2,000 feeder calves are still nothing to scoff at.

The caution to previous statement is that not all $2,000 feeder calves are made the same. We see great differences in cost of production in this state from one producer to the next. Herd size, cow size, feed usage, genetics, and land value all contribute to that difference in cost of production.

Usually, uncertainty leads to questions. As I have worked with our Extension educators across the state in planning our winter meetings, questions have been asked about risk management, cow herd profitability, and the value of genetics. What do these things all have in common?

Good production and financial records are needed to not only make an informed decision but to see any impact after the decision is made. For those looking for a New Year’s resolution, improved farm record keeping would be towards the top of the list.

I often start Extension programs with a question for those in attendance to loosen things up and get a feeling for the audience.

What is the annual cost of production for a cow in your system?

What does it cost to develop and maintain a bred heifer?

Or even more straight forward ones such as,

What is the average mature weight of your cow herd?

How many pounds of calf did you wean per cow exposed?

A good set of scales and accurate production records will be worth the time and investment as we go forward in this cattle cycle. Record keeping, both production and farm financial records will continue to be of increased importance for those looking to not only be profitable but for those looking for certainty in uncertain times.