I’m sure most of you are so done with the El Niño talk. However, I keep getting a lot of questions about how strong it will be, how long it will last, and what impacts it will produce. So, let’s address those three questions…

How strong will this El Niño get? The answer? This will likely be the strongest El Niño on record. It is already very strong and will likely continue to strengthen and peak in November/December. The graphic below is a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast for ENSO region 3.4, which is the main region of interest. 

All of those red lines are different members of the EURO seasonal model. While the individual members differ from each other, the trend is very much the same. It has this event peaking in the November/December timeframe, before starting to weaken in early 2027. This model forecasts a record setting El Niño and I have no reason to disagree with it.

How long will this event last? As you can see above, even as this event starts to weaken to start 2027, the model is still forecasting a strong El Niño to continue through February 2027. The graphic below takes it a step further.

This forecast graphic starts now and ends in May/June/July of 2028. I know that is a long way down the road, but the trend is what I am looking at… The red bars represent the probability that an El Niño is occurring. The blue bars represent the probability that a La Niña is occurring. You can clearly see that the forecast model shows a “hand off” from El Niño to La Niña during the summer of 2027. There is also a lot of historical evidence to support this transition, as we usually will revert back to La Niña after a strong El Niño. Plus, the La Niña that likely follows this El Niño could be a strong one and last several months. As I have stated many times, I hate both El Niño and La Niña, because they produce weather extremes. It also appears that the time we spend in neutral will be pretty short-lived. As many of you know, La Niña isn’t a good pattern for most of Texas and the southern tier of the country. That being said, we still have a long way to go, before we can sink our teeth into that forecast. Just a trend I am watching closely…

What impacts can we expect while this strong / record setting El Niño is present? That is a tough question to answer. Why? Because every El Niño is different with different nuances and impacts. However, this El Niño seems to follow a more traditional type of event. By that I mean that the warmest sea surface temperature anomalies will likely remain across the eastern equatorial Pacific. Here is what the latest EURO and NMME models showing for the September/October/November precipitation anomaly forecast.

Both models show a wetter than average finish to summer and fall. Again, these are just computer model projections, but their trends have remained consistent with this forecast period. Let’s hope this comes to fruition and really starts to put an end to drought that exists across parts of the region. Because if we are likely to revert to La Niña later in 2027, we need all the help we can get now.