September beef exports totaled nearly 240 million pounds, about 4 percent higher year over year. Monthly exports were up year over year to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Mexico. Exports to countries outside the top six were also strong in September, increasing 5 million pounds, nearly 14 percent over the previous year. Exports to China and Canada decreased 16 and 17 percent, respectively, year over year.

September exports rounded out the third quarter, bringing total exports to 735 million pounds for the quarter. This was just less than 1 percent higher than the same period last year but about 10 percent below the average from 2019–23. Year-over-year higher third-quarter exports to Japan, Mexico, Taiwan, and other countries outside the top six offset lower exports to Canada, China and South Korea. Exports to Canada fell rapidly throughout the third quarter; after peaking at nearly 31 million pounds in June, they fell to less than 18 million pounds in September. Third-quarter exports to Canada were nearly 12 percent below a year ago.

Year-to-date exports to smaller countries, not in the top six, have been relatively strong throughout the year and were up about 4 percent year over year through September. The chart below shows the top year-over-year increases in year-to-date exports to smaller markets. Year-to-date exports to the Philippines have increased nearly 10 million pounds over the same period last year. Despite high prices for U.S. beef, there remains a demand in the global market.

U.S. beef exports have remained stronger than expected throughout 2024 despite high U.S. beef prices and available exportable supplies from Australia and Brazil. Beef exports in 2024 are raised 5 million pounds to 2.960 billion, based on higher reported exports through the third quarter. Due to the greater expected U.S. beef supplies in 2025 and anticipated sustained global demand, the export forecast for 2025 is raised 25 million pounds in each quarter, for a total increase of 100 million pounds to 2.700 billion. If realized, exports would represent about 10 percent of expected production. Despite the upward revision to the 2025 U.S. beef export outlook, the projection remains below the 2024 forecast. In the first half of the year, exports are expected to fall about 6 percent compared to the first half of 2024, while they are expected to fall about 12 percent year over year in the second half of the year. This is consistent with the expected pattern of year-over-year changes in beef production throughout 2025.