Well, here we are again…getting ready to start the long, hot, dog days of summer again and I’m not sure I’m quite ready for them. Looking at the latest forecast, it appears the weather models are leaning towards wetter conditions to continue until the end of June. So, I thought it would be interesting for us to look back at Brian Bledsoe’s long-range weather forecast that was given to us back in November 2024. As you know, Michael and I, along with Bret Griffith and Jay Sturgess, sell PRF insurance, a type of crop insurance provided by USDA to protect livestock producers from severe drought conditions. For us, Brian is a very important, informative and experienced provider of long-range weather information we use to help set up clients’ coverage plans. I will remind you; this is what Brian provided us at the beginning of November, seven months ago.

January-March – Models are split across the state of Texas during this period. With any La Nina signal being weak, I still think the regions best suited to avoid dryness will be region 3 (North Central Texas) and 4 (Northeast Texas). The areas farther west still have a dry signal present, even though it isn’t as strong as it has been in previous model runs.  Analogs are still driest west and wettest east.

April-June – Any weak La Niña will be completely gone by April, but we will likely have some drought conditions to overcome. This is especially true for the western and southern regions. Areas farther east will likely see more frequent moisture return. Despite no La Niña signal being present, I would be cautious during this time. The PDO will still be negative/Cold, and that can obviously help facilitate spring dryness.

July-September – July and August are usually hot and dry for most of Texas. The exceptions? Monsoon rain in far west, and tropical storm/ hurricane in the south and southeast. Those two exceptions aside, most of Texas is usually dry in July and August and I don’t see any reason that this will change. If we pivot from La Nina to El Niño, which is possible, we will likely see a hotter and drier summer. I’m not saying it will be like the summer of 2023, as that was during a pretty strong and strengthening El Niño. Also, if even a weak El Niño develops, it will make for a quieter than usual hurricane season.

So, there you have it!  Not a bad job for looking into the future and giving us a hint as to what he thinks the weather will do. Personally, using Brian’s forecast, I set my coverage up on our ranching property exactly as he predicted, and everything has happened exactly as he said.

Now that you know what the future looks like (potentially hot and dry for the next two months) I would like to suggest that you come spend a few days in College Station, soak up the air conditioning and enjoy the Texas A&M Beef Cattle Short Course. We Texans are very fortunate to have the opportunity to have a learning opportunity right here in our own backyard. It doesn’t matter if you are just learning about cows or if you have over 75 years of experience…. I promise you will learn something new at the Short Course. Plus, it’s like a huge reunion. You may see people that you haven’t seen for many years, and you can eat all the free Blue Bell ice cream you can hold.

Important Note: You will not receive another Southern Livestock Standard until July 25^th.  During this time, we will be focusing on our Special Edition magazine and hopefully, take some time off to relax and get ready for the fall sale season. If you would like to keep up with all the important cattle issues having an impact on our business, you can join us on Facebook where Martha Hollida does an outstanding job keeping us informed.