Some of you may recall in my last column, I wrote about my son, Matt, getting married last month in Oregon. I amhappy to report that the wedding did take place and let me tell you something…it was gorgeous. Matt & Molly, my newdaughter-in-law, found a wedding venue outside of Sisters, Oregon which is situated about 153 miles southeast of Portland. If you’ve never been to Oregon, I highly recommend it because they have the most beautiful forest I’ve ever seen, picturesque waterfalls and towering mountain peaks from old volcanoes. Vicki and I flew into Redmond, Oregon, which is on the east side of the Cascade Mountains. I mention this because on the east side of the mountains, theclimate is very dry with deep ravines caused by erosion from rivers and creeks when it does rain. On the west side of the mountain range, along the Pacific Ocean side, it is usually very wet with drizzling rain, fog and colder temperatures. Thick, virgin forest, moss and ferns cover the mountainous hillsides, and in the lowlands, you will find agriculture and farmland. The Pacific coastline is just breathtaking, and many small towns are scattered up and downHighway 101 or the Pacific Coast Highway which stretches from California all the way to Washington state, and it winds back and forth along the coast and is beautiful.

I’m not going to bore you with the wedding details, like describing the flowers and other arrangements mainlybecause I really don’t remember the colors or types of flowers, but what I will always remember is the magnificent sceneof Mount Jefferson in the background. I will also remember how lovely and happy Molly was standing near a bubblingriver that ran through the meadow where the wedding was held. It was absolutely a scene from Disneyland, and we are so happy to now have Molly as a part of the Banner family.

Since this is a livestock newspaper, let’s talk a little bit about the cattle industry. I read an article today from Southern Ag Today, titled the Three P’s of Herd Expansion: Profit, Pasture and Patience. The article started out byconfirming that the beef cow inventory is at a sixty-three-year low which has increased the price of our steers andheifers on average of over $1 per lb. The author of the paper brings out some very good points, which I have believedfor a long time, that maybe the start of retaining replacement females might not grow as fast as in years past.

The first P is for profit. Possibly in the last two years, producers have cashed in their heifers attempting to pay offhigher interest rates on borrowed money from banks. Now, going into the third year of profit, will they bite the bullet andhold back females to replace their aging herds? Even if they do, are their herds expanding or are they just replacing some of the older cows that they may have kept an extra three years because of the market?

The second P is for pasture. To retain these heifers for an additional year, you must have extra pasture and grass and if you already do, what will happen if we hit another drought period? All the hay that was rolled up and sitting in thefields will start to disappear, but you will need to feed it. So, the real question is whether producers have the confidencethat another drought hasn’t already begun and more importantly, when it will end.

The last P stands for patience. The author points out that patience may be the most difficult in the cattle business right now. Once again, when a producer decides to retain his heifers, they are not only giving up that year’s incomefrom those heifers, but there is also more expense involved to develop them until they reach production. Let’s face it,developing heifers is expensive and that cost, before you receive the following year’s income, can seem like a lifetime ifyou have to borrow money. Another report I recently read said that the average price to purchase commercial bred heifers should be between $2,800 and $3,200.

I wish I had the right answer, but I don’t. I have believed for some time that the cow herd build up will take longer thanwe have ever witnessed, and I agree with the Three P’s but probably place more emphasis on the potential dry weather than the loss of income or the expense of producing. Either way, we shall see what cattle producers decide to do next year.