I officially have returned from the Holy Land of Texas (College Station, Texas, of course) where I attended the 2024 Texas A&M Beef Cattle Short Course. For you who weren’t there, you missed another wonderful session oflearning about our passion…cattle production. I always enjoy attending the event because it’s held in Augustwhen it’s extremely hot and the information you can gather is second to none. The crowd of over 1,800attendees was in a great mood. Why shouldn’t they be? Green grass in the pastures, round bales in the fields andrecord cattle prices should make even the grumpiest cowman you know have at least a little smile.

I attended the two key speakers on Monday afternoon that addressed the future cattle market and of course, the weather. Randy Blach, CEO of CattleFax gave an excellent presentation showing where the cattle cycle was severalyears ago, where we are today and where he felt we would be in the next two to three years. The estimated beef cowinventory is at a record low with an estimated 28 million plus head of producing cows compared to approximately 33.5 million in 2000.

Meanwhile, the U.S. beef replacement heifer numbers for 2023 were down dramatically to an estimated 4.9 million head compared to 6.3 million in 2017 and 2018. In other words, the national herd build up has not yet begun. In fact,they expect the retention numbers for 2024 to be even lower at 4.8 million head. Blach went on to explain that the feeder calf supply is down, which means that slaughter numbers are also down which should keep prices strong and steady. Blach pointed out several times that the cow/calf producer right now is in the driver’s seat and will continue tomake a good profit until 2026 and possibly even 2027 if producers don’t get crazy and start retaining inferior qualityfemales.

Personally, I think this market will remain strong and the difference between this cattle cycle and past years is the interest rates and the weather. I think most producers are afraid to build back too fast because they like the pricesthey are currently receiving, and because they live in constant fear of drought that can show up in any region of thecountry. They are being very conservative and mindful of what has happened in years past.

The next speaker on Monday afternoon was our own columnist, meteorologist Brian Bledsoe who once again did abang-up job explaining what has occurred so far weather wise in 2024 and what to expect for this fall. I’m just going to try to summarize what I heard Bledsoe say and explain it the best I can. The U.S. and European models are lining up and agreeing whether or not a La Niña development will occur. The U.S. model is more aggressive saying it will develop and the European model saying not so much. Bledsoe then reported that he is still concerned about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation likely staying negative/cold and the equatorial Pacific likely continuing to cool. In other words, we will possibly experience a weak La Niña which tends to somewhat be drier.

Of course, you can keep up with Brian’s forecast right here every month in Southern Livestock Standard becausehe is a feature columnist for us. As we get closer to the end of the year, hopefully you will have the most up-to-dateinformation to make your business decisions. The calendar shows fall is just around the corner and production sales are ready to start up again in September. Bull sales will be in full swing by October and November, and we lookforward to seeing you at some of these events. I can’t wait to hear who sold the calves at the highest prices because then I’ll know who can spend just a little more on that new bull or bulls waiting for a new home.