The resiliency of U.S. ag exports

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Will Snell, University of Kentucky College of Agriculture Food and Environment

September 4, 2026

U.S. agricultural trade has faced a lot of headwinds in recent years. Events such as the global pandemic, international military conflicts, increased competition, a slowing global economy, domestic weather events, a 75 year low in cattle inventory, slumping crop prices, high input prices, and a relatively strong dollar have adversely impacted trade flows and the overall U.S. farm economy. These events, along with trade policy battles with our major export buyers – China, Canada, Mexico and the European Union, would lead many to conclude that U.S. ag exports have likely plummeted amidst these challenging global events.

Last year, U.S. ag exports did finish 12% off its record high value of $196 billion in 2022 but have remained in the $170 billion dollar level for four of the past five years (2021-2025), compared to averaging $143 billion during the previous five-year period (2016-2020). Amidst multiple trade challenges, the most recent five-year period has actually been the highest U.S. ag export value in history.

In reality, lower prices for several commodities have constrained recent U.S. export values. Isolating on trade volume, U.S. export quantities during this turbulent period have remained near record levels. USDA data reveal that aggregate ag export quantities for 2025 are the third highest on record and only 2.5% below the largest level achieved in 2021.

Looking at the data more closely, one market, China, accounted for over 100% of the loss in U.S. ag export value since 2022. The value of U.S. ag exports for 20 of our top 25 foreign markets increased from 2022 to 2025, with some of our major ag export markets like Mexico, the European Union, South Korea, Colombia, Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Dominican Republic finishing 2025 at record high levels. From an individual commodity/ag product perspective, ethanol, corn, dairy products, and tree nuts hit record export values during the past year.

Plus, the overall strength in U.S. ag exports is continuing so far in 2026. Through the first half of this year, U.S. ag exports are up 7% in value (and 10% in volume). At this pace, U.S. ag exports for 2026 could end the year exceeding $180 billion – second highest on record. Most of the gains so far in 2026 can be attributed to a rebounding Chinese market — up 43% in value and 115 % in quantity. Notable increases in export value during the first six months of 2026 include soybeans, up 33%, soybean meal up 20%, ethanol up 21%, tree nuts up 28%, fresh fruits and vegetables, both up 11%; and distilled spirits, up 26%. But traditional southern crops like tobacco, rice, and cotton continue their downward trends, off 32%, 14%, and 6%, respectively, so far in 2026.