Last month we talked about how the development of La Niña had kind of halted, but would likely resume development at some point. It is interesting to note that the July run of the EURO seasonal model really doesn’t show La Niña being a factor at all, over the next several months. However, the NMME model continues to show La Niña development as we finish summer and roll into fall. I must say, that would be a more typical scenario, versus not seeing any La Niña event at all. To be honest, I think we need a little more time to discern what will happen with La Niña. However, the latest La Niña probabilities (shown below) continue to show about a 50% chance of us being in a La Niña episode by later this fall. 

That being said, La Niña likely won’t have a big impact on our weather for the next few months. So, let’s look at the forecast models for the next few months…

EURO Seasonal Model Temperature Anomaly Forecast

EURO Seasonal Model Precipitation Anomaly Forecast

NMME Model Temperature Anomaly Forecast

NMME Model Precipitation Anomaly Forecast

IRI Multi-Model Ensemble Temperature Anomaly Forecast

IRI Multi-Model Ensemble Precipitation Anomaly Forecast  

With the hurricane season likely to fire up in August and remain active into early fall, there is still a chance for some substantial impacts along the Gulf Coast…IF the right storm combines with a favorable steering flow to put it in the right spot. Outside of that happening, the overall trend for the next few months is warmer than average and average to slightly drier than average depending on your location. Remember, it only takes one storm to change that outlook, so it requires quite a bit of babysitting while the hurricane season impacts us with whatever it sends us.

Brian