Cattle markets have been nervously reacting to rumors and speculation that the Mexican border may reopen at any time to cattle imports into the U.S. Many questions are swirling about when the border might open, how many cattle are backlogged in Mexico and how fast cattle might cross into the U.S. Some background and recent events are helpful to sort out what to expect if the border reopens.

For 20 years, from 2004 – 2023, U.S. imports of Mexican cattle have averaged 1.17 million head, ranging from 0.703 to 1.47 million head per year. On average, Mexican cattle imports are equal to 3.3 percent of the U.S. calf crop. Mexican cattle imports include steers and spayed heifers, with heifers accounting for an average of 15.6 percent of total cattle imports. 

 Severe drought in Mexico, especially in 2023 and 2024, significantly impacted exports of cattle to the U.S. In 2023, a total of 1.25 million head of Mexican cattle were imported, including 28.4 percent spayed heifers. In 2024, a total of 1.25 million head of Mexican cattle were imported prior to the border closure in late November. Given the typical seasonal pattern of imports, total Mexican cattle imports in 2024 were on pace to reach a record or near record level of 1.45 – 2.0 million head. Total imports prior to the border closure included 37.1 percent spayed heifers, a record level of heifers in the import total. Total steers in the import mix both years were below average levels. Drought conditions, combined with rising U.S. cattle prices, were major factors in the increase in Mexican cattle exports to the U.S. and especially for the increase in spayed heifer exports. Mexican cattle exports in 2023 and 2024 were most likely not sustainable and indicated cattle liquidation.

 What would have happened in 2025 if the border had not been closed? No one knows of course, but the events of the previous two years likely mean that less cattle would have been available for export. It appears that 2025 cattle exports to the U.S. would have likely totaled perhaps 0.95 – 1.0 million head with an open border. A total of 229,055 head did cross in the brief periods that the border was open earlier in the year. 

The big question is how many potential cattle exports have been reabsorbed into the domestic Mexican market. There are indications that Mexican feedlots have been placing Mexican cattle (substantially devalued relative to the U.S. market) in lieu of Central American cattle that typically backfill the Mexican cattle supply. Improved drought conditions in Mexico allow more flexibility for Mexican cattle producers to hold cattle. For example, the October 12-month moving average of rainfall in Chihuahua was at the highest level since July 2023. However, with little prospects of the border opening until recently and only rumors now, many Mexican cattle may have already been marketed back into the domestic market. Certainly, there are no prospects for spayed heifer imports into the U.S. The limited time frame for spayed heifers to be exported combined with the uncertainty of the border (even if it is opened) makes it risky and unlikely that heifers would be scheduled for export. There may also be more heifer retention now in northern Mexico. On net, it seems likely that perhaps 200 to 400 thousand head of Mexican cattle may currently be available for export.

 When the border opens it will take time for cattle exports to begin and they will likely start slowly. Border facilities have to be restaffed, and producers have to prepare cattle and paperwork for export. All of that, plus extra inspections and protocols, is likely to mean that very few cattle would cross before the end of the year. It will be a trickle rather than a flood, when it happens.