Cattle markets continue searching for a practical bottom to the sharp early-summer correction as cattle prices trended lower from the middle of July through the middle of August. Besides seasonal pressure and sluggish wholesale beef values, a variety of news and uncertainty continue to roil confidence.

Toward the end of July, USDA announced the phased reopening of southern cattle ports to the importation of Mexican feeder cattle. The ports have been closed because of New World screwworm (NWS). The reopening is contingent on Mexico’s adherence to the Joint Action Plan, according to USDA. 

Beginning Aug. 24, 2026, USDA will open the Douglas, Arizona port of entry to cattle trade. When announced, the closest active NWS case to the port was approximately 325 miles away, detected on July 22, 2026. After evaluating the success of the initial reopening and potential impacts or risk assessment changes, APHIS will then consider reopening the Santa Teresa, New Mexico., and Columbus, New Mexico., ports to live cattle, bison, and horses.

For domestic NWS perspective, USDA reported the first confirmed case June 3. As of Aug. 15, 46 cases had been reported in Texas and New Mexico, according to USDA’s NWS Confirmed Detections Dashboard.

Fundamentally speaking, the border reopening is positive for feedlots and packers trying to manage margins amid historically low cattle numbers.

Capacity wonderment grows

Tyson Foods announced Aug. 13 that it will end operations at its Joslin, Illinois, beef facility and its Eagle Mountain, Utah, case-ready facility. You likely recall the company closed its plant at Lexington, Nebraska early this year and reduced production at its plant in Amarillo, Texas. Additionally, Tyson Foods is pursuing the sale of its beef plant in Pasco, Washington.

According to the company statement, “Tyson Foods will anchor its beef business around three strategically located beef facilities in the central United States: Dakota City, Nebraska Holcomb, Kansas. and Amarillo, Texas, to create a more competitive footprint amidst one of the most historic cattle shortages the country has ever experienced.”

Meanwhile, the Cargill plant at Ft. Morgan, Colorado, remained dark through the middle of August, as union workers and the company have yet to come to an agreement.

In between those events came USDA’s semi-annual Cattle report, which suggests cyclical cattle liquidation may be at or near the end. 

As of July 1, there were 28.5 million cows in the U.S. inventory, which was 200,000 head fewer (-0.7%) than a year earlier. Beef replacement heifers of 3.8 million head were 100,000 head more (2.7%). At the same time, the percentage of heifers on feed July 1 continues to suggest herd expansion has yet to begin.

All cattle and calves in the United States of 94.2 million head was 200,000 head more (0.2%) year over year. Milk cows numbered 9.7 million head, which was 200,000 head more (2.1%) year over year.

Cattle on feed July 1 of 11.4. million head were 246,000 head more (2.2%) year over year. That was about dead on with pre-report estimates. 

Numbers perspective

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price was $235.21/cwt. the week ending Aug. 9, which was $12.80 lower than a month earlier and $6.80 less year over year.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index declined $21.82 to $348.50/cwt. between July 13 and Aug. 13. 

During the same period, feed prices appeared higher for the new crop year. As an example, USDA forecast the season-average 2026-27 corn price at $4.50 per bushel in the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

Compared to the previous month, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) cut projected five-area direct weighted average fed steer prices for the remainder of this year and the first half of next year in the WASDE.

Compared to the previous month, based on recent weaker than expected demand for fed cattle, forecast prices for this year declined $13 in the third quarter to $255/cwt. and $10 in the fourth quarter to $255 for an annual average of $251.10, which was $5.75 lower.

That was with this year’s beef production estimated to be 321 million pounds less (-0.1%) than last month at 24.97 billion pounds. The total would be 1 billion pounds less (-4%) than the previous year’s total. Beef production was lowered due to a slower rate of steer, heifer and cow slaughter through the end of the year. 

For next year, fed steer prices declined $5 to $250 in the first quarter and $255 in the second quarter with an annual average price of $254.

U.S. beef export value strengthens

Monthly U.S. beef exports totaled 88,586 metric tons (mt) in June, down 6% from a year ago, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). However, export value was up 3% to $790.1 million, bolstered by year-over-year increases in Japan, Taiwan, the ASEAN region, Central America, South Korea, Hong Kong, the Caribbean and Africa. 

For the first half of this year, beef export volume was 9% lower than a year ago at 545,649 mt, while value fell 4% to $4.74 billion. Much of this decline was due to the continued absence from China, where beef exports were strong in the first quarter of 2025 before China allowed U.S. facility registrations to expire. Although these registrations were renewed during President Trump’s visit to China in May, exports to China remain minimal due to plant suspensions and uncertainty over China’s residue testing – trade barriers that U.S. officials are working to resolve. When China is removed from the January-June results, beef export volume declined just 1% from the first half of last year while export value increased 6%.

“While we never want to see exports down year-over-year, global demand for U.S. beef continues to be very resilient,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “USMEF greatly appreciates the Trump administration’s persistent efforts to resolve the outstanding issues facing U.S. beef exports to China. The economic situation throughout Asia remains challenging, with lost purchasing power in U.S. dollar terms, yet customers continue to purchase a wide range of U.S. beef cuts, at record prices. This gives us an optimistic outlook for the second half.”