Here is a look at the latest summer outlook from the various models and the Climate Prediction Center.

EURO Seasonal Model Precipitation Anomaly Forecast 

June/July/August

EURO Seasonal Model Temperature Anomaly Forecast 

June/July/August

NMME Model Precipitation Anomaly Forecast 

June/July/August

NMME Model Seasonal Model Precipitation Anomaly Forecast 

June/July/August

For comparison, here is the latest Climate Prediction Center forecast for the same time frame…

CPC Precipitation Anomaly Forecast

June/July/August

CPC Temperature Anomaly Forecast

June/July/August

Everything from a model standpoint looks pretty similar. The real question is where the hot ridge of high pressure sets up. Does it set up out west or central? My gut says somewhere over the southwest third of the country and then expands to the east. How far east is a question that remains to be answered. However, Mexico has already been seeing some pretty significant heat, due to a strong ridge of high pressure over central Mexico. I think that the ridge will persist and expand northward. This likely happens in June, and I can already see signs of that in the models. 

Things I am worried about: 

1) Drought development and expansion across Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, west Texas, Colorado, western Kansas, Wyoming, western Nebraska, and possibly southern Montana. Because of this, I am expecting a significant timber fire season for those states that are heavily treed. The pattern likely favors a greatly diminished monsoon, which factors into neighboring states’ rain chances. For example, if the monsoon is quite weak this summer, there will be less subtropical moisture in the flow to produce meaningful and widespread rain. Since the monsoon comes up from the southwest, there is less moisture to spread to northern states. Thus, the drying trend… It’s something I’ve been worried about and have been talking about for quite some time. Does this mean it won’t rain in those areas? No…it means that the opportunities for meaningful rain will be reduced. Factor in less rain and hot temperatures, and you have the recipe for expanding drought. 

2) A very quiet Pacific hurricane season and a very active Atlantic hurricane season. The oceans are configured to support such an outcome. The quiet Pacific hurricane season will only add to the diminished moisture in the southwest US and western Mexico. The active Atlantic hurricane season will likely cause plenty of issues for the east/southeast US. Some of that tropical moisture will no doubt impact Texas. That is likely why the EURO and NMME models have wetter than average conditions for southeast Texas this summer. The EURO is more aggressive in bringing that moisture farther west, but I feel as though the NMME is more correct in this instance.