Last month, I showed you what was up with the developing El Niño. This month, we’ll look at the various long range models and what they are projecting for the next few months. First, let’s look at the EURO Seasonal Model…

September – November Precipitation Forecast

While the three month outlook from the EURO Seasonal Model is somewhat mixed, it does have wetter conditions for all of Texas and the Gulf Coast region by November. I am somewhat skeptical that it doesn’t set in before November, as we still have the tropical storm / hurricane season to get through. This model and other long range models have essentially zero skill in predicting such things. However, all that aside, much of west/northwest Texas does start to see some moisture, before November. That would be a great thing…

Now, let’s look at the NMME Model…

September – November Precipitation Forecast

Aside from being drier than average in the Pacific Northwest, the NMME Model really isn’t committed to wetter or drier than average. I would expect that to change when the new model run comes in next month. However, one can infer that the pattern really starts to get active for Texas and the Gulf Coast in November. This is pretty consistent with what the EURO Seasonal Model shows too…

In summary, I still expect El Niño to be a significant driver in the forecast for fall and winter. Historically, that would mean a pretty active storm track along the southern tier of the country. However, as I have cautioned in the past…every El Niño is different. This will likely be a strong event, and hopefully it doesn’t push the storm track too far to the south. Fingers crossed that all areas that are dealing with drought will have that erased in the coming months.