As I was mentioning last month when we chatted, La Niña had likely peaked and was on its way out. Well, let’s see if that is the case…

We still have some cooler than average water in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, but areas eastward along equator to South America have warmed. We can also look at this on a graph.

You can see that La Niña maxed out in late December and late January, but has been steadily weakening since that time. In fact, the latest value of -0.302 is out of La Niña territory. Does that mean that the pattern is fixed and everything is great? No…not so much. In the first map that I posted above, you can also see cooler than average sea surface temperature anomalies along the west coast of North America and from the Baja southwestward into the central equatorial Pacific. That is not a great recipe for frequent moisture producing storms for all of us. For some of us that live farther east? Sure… For areas farther west? Not at all…

Take a look at who has been drier than average for the past 90 days.

Those are precipitation anomalies as a % of “normal” since December 2nd… The western half of Texas has been very dry. Areas farther east have done much better… I am worried about drought creep, especially for those areas that have not seen any meaningful moisture for quite some time.

While I wish I could write this article in a couple of days and have the most up to date seasonal model information, I can’t do that. We have a deadline… So, here is what February’s run of the seasonal models had to say for March, April, and May.

EURO Seasonal Model Precipitation Anomaly Forecast March-May

EURO Seasonal Model Temperature Anomaly Forecast March-May

NMME Model Precipitation Anomaly Forecast March-May

NMME Temperature Anomaly Forecast March-May

The overall trend is for drier than average and warmer than average weather this spring. I remain most concerned about those that live farther west, and less concerned about those that live farther east. However, the pattern is not one that favors the state of Texas. Here’s hoping that changes…