I know it is very early to be thinking about this subject, but the status of the Pacific Ocean is always on the front of my mind. Why? Because it is so important in determining what happens in our longer range forecast. So, let’s see what it looks like right now…

Technically, we are sitting in La Nada or neutral territory when it comes to the El Niño / La Niña phase. But over the past two weeks, the easterly trade winds blowing along the equator have been stronger. That is responsible for dropping the Niño 3.4 Index to its lowest value since May. Here is what the current sea surface temperature anomalies look like;

You can see cooler than average water from the coast of California to the south of Hawaii. You also see some cooler than average sea surface temperatures along the equator to the west of South America. I also want to look at another map, that is perhaps more telling… When we look at the sea surface temperature anomaly difference from the global mean sea surface temperature anomaly, you see a colder signal in those locations. 

With this configuration in place during the heart of the summer, it makes it that much easier for La Niña to return late this summer and as we move into fall. The latest seasonal models are also hinting at that happening too.

The graphic above is a forecast for sea surface temperature anomalies through early 2026. Neutral or La Nada conditions essentially fall between +0.5 and -0.5. However, there are quite a few forecast lines that fall beneath that -0.5 line. To me, with the way the Pacific is stacked right now and has been stacked for the past 26 years (negative/cold PDO), my money is on La Niña returning this fall. What does that mean? Historically speaking once it becomes established, a drier and warmer period occurs in the fall through early winter. We have some time to monitor these trends and see how things play out. None of this is set in stone, but I do monitor the trends all the time and want to alert my clients to those trends. I will break this down in more detail during my weather forecast presentation at the Beef Cattle Short Course in just a couple of weeks. See you there!