By now, you are all likely sick of hearing about El Niño. There has been a lot of hype surrounding this event and for good reason. This event is already quite strong and going to continue to strengthen. The forecast model graphics below show what type of strength is possible. The first graphic is from the EURO seasonal model.

All of those red lines represent different members of the model that are looking at how strong this El Niño will get. Just taking the average, the event should peak late this year and then gradually start to weaken. It also looks very likely that this event will peak somewhere between 3 and 4 degrees celsius above average. That would put it in record territory. Another model courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia suggests something similar.

This really isn’t news, as these models have been forecasting such things for quite some time. But, it’s always useful to make sure they are on the same page… 

Have we benefitted from this strong El Niño? Well, it all depends on what you classify as being beneficial… Many of us have certainly seen our fair share of rain, while others continue to struggle with drought. The four maps below show the precipitation anomaly as a % of “normal” for the past 180 days, 90 days, 60 days and 30 days.

The maps clearly show some big “haves” and some big “have nots”. Most recently, we saw a slow moving upper-level disturbance move across parts of Texas and produce catastrophic flooding. Some areas picked up between 15 and 30 inches of rain over a few days! Meanwhile, other areas are burning up due to heat and drought… In a nutshell, that is what El Niño is good at…perpetuating extremes.

So, where do we go from here? Historically, a strong/super El Niño produces wetter than average conditions across the southern tier of the country in fall and winter. Both the EURO seasonal model and the NMME seasonal model continue to show that trend.

EURO Seasonal Model Forecast Precipitation Anomaly September – November

NMME Seasonal Model Forecast Precipitation Anomaly September – November

While these are just models and nothing is set in stone, the stage does appear to be set for some active fall and early winter weather. I think the main question is this… Where does the main storm track set up? Sometimes when an El Niño gets really strong, it can keep the main storm track farther south and can leave even some areas in the southern tier of the country drier than others. That is going to be something I will have to watch as we move forward. However, as of right now, there is reason for optimism and that is better than the alternative. 

I have the honor of speaking again at the Beef Cattle Short Course in early August. I hope to see you there!