From the last time we chatted, the El Niño chatter has taken off. I am not surprised by this, but feel like we need to continue to talk about what it means. While some outlets tell you that we won’t see impacts until fall/winter, I believe that we are already seeing El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The following map shows sea surface temperature anomalies as of April 27th.

The warmer than average water off the west coast of South America extends along the equator to the west. We also have much warmer than average water off the southwest coast of the U.S. That is the warm/positive phase of what is called the Pacific Meridional Mode. These two can work to enhance the subtropical or southern branch of the jet stream. We’ve seen some of this in recent weeks… However, what is happening at the surface is only a small part of what is going on… The ocean temperature anomalies beneath the surface are even more impressive. This map shows extremely warm water beneath the surface…all the way down to 200 meters deep across the same part of the ocean. That warm water in a lesser capacity will eventually surface. That process is what will make this event develop quickly. That magnitude of warm water also is what will likely make this a strong event. How strong? That is what we still have to determine. However, the following chart/forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology out of Australia gives us an idea.

The chart above shows sea surface temperature anomalies rising to levels greater than 2.5 degrees celsius by the fall. That would put us in very strong or “super” El Niño territory. In fact, if the forecast chart above verifies, this could be the strongest El Niño in well over 100 years. Now, I think it is very important to be measured about the strength forecast as we have a few more things to determine. However, given how quickly we left La Niña in the dust and how quickly we’ve transitioned to weak El Niño status, along with the typhoon activity in the western Pacific, I would be very surprised if we didn’t have a very strong El Niño by later this summer and fall. I also think it is important to note that this El Niño likely isn’t going to exit as quickly as it developed. This event and its impacts will likely linger into AT LEAST the first third of 2027…possibly longer. But as I said, still some things to figure out there…

While the model data came out earlier this month, here is what the EURO seasonal model information had to say about the rest of spring and summer.

EURO Seasonal Model Temperature Anomaly Forecast May – July

EURO Seasonal Model Precipitation Anomaly Forecast May – July

EURO Seasonal Model Temperature Anomaly Forecast July – September

EURO Seasonal Model Precipitation Anomaly Forecast July – September

While this model doesn’t show any extreme heat or dryness for a prolonged period of time, if you read last month’s article, you know I am concerned about some heat and flash drought conditions materializing later this summer for central/east Texas eastward along the Gulf Coast. Why? Well, history suggests as much, and you can kind of see that signal in the model information above. 

Tough to say how widespread it will be, but a lot of it will determine how much rain these areas receive in May and June. Less rain? The heat and dryness come on quickly… More rain? The heat and dryness come on less quickly. Certainly something I will be watching…