I am typing this on the morning of Sept.28th. The map below shows the precipitation anomaly for the past 30 days.

Most of our region has been in pretty rough shape and when you factor in the heat, it hasn’t been nice. The areas that have been seeing rain have been on the periphery of the ridge. Thankfully, the ridge has broken down and the pattern is changing… While I am not going to put any specific rain amounts in this article, because they will be dated when you read this, the pattern certainly looks favorable to deliver some much needed rain as we head into the first week of October. Fingers crossed…

What about beyond that? Well, the record setting El Niño event will continue to have a big impact on our seasonal forecast. Here is a look at the latest forecast precipitation anomaly.

October-November-December Forecast Precipitation Anomaly

November-December-January Forecast Precipitation Anomaly

December-January-February Forecast Precipitation Anomaly

January-February-March Forecast Precipitation Anomaly

You can see that the model favors a very active weather pattern across the southern tier of the U.S. While that looks good on paper, there will also be some wiggles in the pattern. How far north does the storm track set up? How far south does the storm track set up? What trends and nuances take place to reinforce the pattern? Despite what an El Niño of this strength should produce, there are always areas that buck the pattern or historical trend.

So, for this article, let’s digest what is in front of us for the next several months. Hopefully, the pattern will erase a lot of drought concerns. What lies ahead later in 2027 and 2028 troubles me, so it is very important that we capitalize on this pattern. La Niña is likely to come back during that time, and it is rarely ever kind to most of us. More on that next month…