USDA-National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) made a few changes to its estimates of corn and soybean harvests in upcoming months that were released on Sept. 12. Corn production this year is pegged at 15.186 billion bushels, a 40-million-bushel increase from the projection made in August. This year’s production is down slightly from last year’s 15.342 billion bushels. Production is based on an average yield per acre of 183.6 bushels, up 0.5 bushels from the August estimate. There was some market sentiment prior to the report that average yields could be as high as 188 bushels per acre, based on favorable crop development weather. Following the release of the report, corn prices for December delivery at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange moved up from $3.98 per bushel to $4.05.

The September soybean production estimate was adjusted down 3 million bushels from the August estimate, effectively unchanged at 4.586 billion bushels. This compares with last year’s harvest of 4.165 billion bushels. The September estimate was close to market expectations.

The sorghum production estimate was the exception of the report. September production was raised from 279 million bushels in August to 302 million bushels this month. World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) that were also released on Sept. 12 by the USDA Office of the Chief Economist showed most of the increase in sorghum supply being absorbed by exports.

There were no significant adjustments to corn and soybean market forecasts in the WASDE report. The additional corn production was assumed to lead to larger end-of-year inventories next Sept. 1, and the average corn price at the farm for the coming year was adjusted down $0.10 per bushel to $4.10 per bushel. The Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) has taken a slightly different tack to the corn market outlook with the additional corn production moving into animal feed use channels at the lower $4.10 per bushel price. LMIC has recently extended its forecast horizon for all crops and livestock into 2026. The lower corn price forecast is assumed to reduce corn plantings next spring by two million acres. Trend line assumptions for average yield lead to a 2025 corn crop that is 900 million bushels less than this year and corn prices for the 2025 crop year that are around $5.00 per bushel.