Cattle markets continue to underscore their fundamental strength with cattle prices holding their ground or gaining in the face of multiple shocks, including significantly higher crude oil prices and uncertainty stemming from the U.S. War with Iran, the strike at the JBS packing plant in Greeley, Colorado and lingering wonderment about when the U.S. border will reopen to Mexican cattle imports.

For perspective, between Feb. 27, the last trading day before the U.S. strike on Iran and March 10, the spot April Live Cattle contract increased $19.55, and near-December was up $11.90. The spot April Feeder Cattle contract increased $22.95, and near-December was up $24.85. 

During the same period, the five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price increased to about $245/cwt. the week ending April 5. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was up near $385. During the same period, regional average prices for steers weighing 600-700 pounds was par.

All of that was with WTI Crude Oil futures (CME) increasing $29.68 per barrel to $96.57 and volatile gyrations in equity markets.

Demand power

Although wholesale beef values wavered seasonally during the same period, there is no sign that domestic and international consumers continue are backing away from beef. 

Domestic retail beef prices increased year over year in March, while retail chicken and pork prices softened, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC). 

“The all-fresh retail beef price was $9.55 per pound in March, softening from $9.64 per pound in February but an increase of $1.12 per pound (+13%) from last year,” LMIC analysts explain, in the early-April Livestock Monitor. “Ground beef was reported at $6.86 per pound in March, up $0.73 per pound (+12%) from last year. Rounds increased $1.06 per pound (+12%) from last year to $9.61 per pound in March but fell slightly by $0.49 per pound from the prior month. Steaks were reported at $12.73 per pound in March and on par with the prior month but increased $1.75 per pound compared to the prior year.”

On the other side of the fence, the March retail pork price of $4.87 per pounds was 2% less year over year and the lowest level since February 2025, according to LMIC. The March retail composite broiler price was also 2% less year over year at $2.41.

Agricultural economists at Kansas State University (K-State) provide insight to how important demand is to cattle prices.

Intuitively, we know that beef demand is important and that more is better than less. However, determining what specific demand levels mean to prices, relative to a given supply of beef, is complex.

“In short, the market simply would not have experienced observed beef and cattle price outcomes in either 2024 or 2025, absent notable consumer demand strength,” says Glynn Tonsor, K-State agricultural economist in the mid-February issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Stated simply, the number of beef cows matters but is far from the complete story and robs the industry of credit for a good story worth telling, and better appreciation.”

Try this on for size: increased demand explains 87% of increased year-over-year retail beef price in 2025, whereas the declining beef supply accounts for 14%. That’s according to a recent analysis by Tonsor and fellow K-State agricultural economist, Brian Coffey.

“… Dramatic national-level herd liquidation since 2019 has been a key factor in supporting prices for cattle all along the supply chain and all types of beef,” they explain. “However, a look at the data readily reveals that the market changes observed in past few years are anything but one-dimensional. One factor that has received less attention than others is the role of consumer demand for beef.”

In A Microeconomic Assessment of the U.S Retail Beef Market: Beef Demand Matters, they illustrate demand’s role in U.S. consumers paying higher retail beef prices for more beef.

Peak cattle prices, maybe

Cattle prices peak this year and then decline through 2035 as the U.S. beef cow herd rebuilds, according to baseline projections in the recent U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri.

FAPRI projects the beef cow herd growing from 27.6 million head at the beginning of this year to 31.2 million head in 2032 before declining to 30.4 million head by 2035.

As for prices, the five-area direct weighted average fed steer price declines throughout the projection period from a peak of $234.94/cwt. this year to $196.59 in 2030 and then $159.22 by 2034.

Likewise, prices for feeder steers weighing 600-650 lbs. and selling at Oklahoma City are projected to decline from a peak average of $382.89/cwt. this year to $302.12 in 2030 and then ultimately to $237.17 in 2035.

As a backdrop, FAPRI estimate real GDP growth in the U.S. at 2.3% this year and then ranging between 1.7% and 1.9% for the remainder of the projection period. Real global GDP estimates are 2.7% this year and then ranging between 2.6% and 2.8%.

Beef exports hang tough

Despite continued lack of access to China, U.S. beef exports continue to show resilience.

Exports totaled 85,066 metric tons (mt) in February, which was 13% less year over year, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Value fell 10% to $722.7 million. Excluding China, February exports were 4% higher in value and just 1% below last year’s volume.

Exports of beef variety meats were a bright spot. The 24,081 mt of beef variety meat in February were 12% more than a year earlier, while the value of these shipments soared 40% to $106 million.

“Beef variety meat exports continue to trend higher, especially on the value side, and that makes such an important contribution to the value of every animal,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “Where U.S. beef has access, muscle cut demand has held up well and provides a great complement to our robust domestic market. But for beef variety meats, export markets are really the whole ball game, so it’s great to see these products achieve broad-based growth.”

Beef export value equated to $422.87 per head of fed slaughter in February, down 2% from a year ago but the highest in 11 months. The January-February per-head average was $418.83, up 5% from a year earlier.