Weather Forecast

Looking ahead

Here is a look at the latest summer outlook from the various models and the Climate Prediction Center. EURO Seasonal Model Precipitation Anomaly Forecast  June/July/August EURO Seasonal Model Temperature Anomaly Forecast  June/July/August NMME Model Precipitation Anomaly Forecast  June/July/August NMME Model Seasonal Model Precipitation Anomaly Forecast  June/July/August For comparison, here is ...

Where we stand with drought

Fortunately as I sit here and type this, a lot of the region is in pretty good shape. However, as you can see below there are some areas that are still struggling with dryness and drought. The past several weeks have been the most kind to eastern areas. The map ...

Here’s the latest

The latest sea surface temperature anomaly map. You can see the El Niño weakening, and the evidence of La Niña building. There is also quite a bit of cooling in the north Pacific and from the Baja to Hawaii. That "cold horseshoe" is likely going to mean a PDO (Pacific ...

Drought worries again

I know I have spent plenty of time dissecting El Niño and what will be the transition to La Niña. However, let’s do a little recap of who this El Niño has helped, and who it hasn’t helped. Here is a look at the last year, in terms of total ...

2023 weather recap

Hope you all have had a great holiday season! It’s always amazing how quickly the year goes by… Here is a look at the total precipitation anomaly measured in inches, that was observed for 2023. As you can see, there were some very dry areas across parts of Texas, the ...

More El Niño thoughts

Here is a look at the latest model forecast strength and duration for this El Niño event. Focus on the mean forecast bar graph on the bottom of the charts, as it is the most responsible estimate of strength and duration: As you can see, the event peaks from December-February, ...

Weather Wise

Winter thoughts My thinking is that the upcoming winter could be pretty rough for parts of the Plains. The closest analog I can find, which I have shared with you many times, is 1972-73. This is the last time we had a strong east-based El Niño with a negative PDO. ...

History repeats in weather

What is an analog year? Years in the past with weather patterns similar to the current weather pattern and those projected by the weather models for the next several months. Basically, using history to help forecast the future… I always like to share with you some analog years for the ...

Long range model update

Last month, I showed you what was up with the developing El Niño. This month, we’ll look at the various long range models and what they are projecting for the next few months. First, let’s look at the EURO Seasonal Model… September - November Precipitation Forecast While the three month ...
el nino

El Niño update

Time to check in on our old friend, and see what he is up to… The graphic below shows current sea surface temperature anomalies. A couple of things to note, before I show you what it looked like earlier this year: 1) The warmest water in the ENSO region is ...