Weather Forecast

Drought worries again

I know I have spent plenty of time dissecting El Niño and what will be the transition to La Niña. However, let’s do a little recap of who this El Niño has helped, and who it hasn’t helped. Here is a look at the last year, in terms of total ...

2023 weather recap

Hope you all have had a great holiday season! It’s always amazing how quickly the year goes by… Here is a look at the total precipitation anomaly measured in inches, that was observed for 2023. As you can see, there were some very dry areas across parts of Texas, the ...

More El Niño thoughts

Here is a look at the latest model forecast strength and duration for this El Niño event. Focus on the mean forecast bar graph on the bottom of the charts, as it is the most responsible estimate of strength and duration: As you can see, the event peaks from December-February, ...

Weather Wise

Winter thoughts My thinking is that the upcoming winter could be pretty rough for parts of the Plains. The closest analog I can find, which I have shared with you many times, is 1972-73. This is the last time we had a strong east-based El Niño with a negative PDO. ...

History repeats in weather

What is an analog year? Years in the past with weather patterns similar to the current weather pattern and those projected by the weather models for the next several months. Basically, using history to help forecast the future… I always like to share with you some analog years for the ...

Long range model update

Last month, I showed you what was up with the developing El Niño. This month, we’ll look at the various long range models and what they are projecting for the next few months. First, let’s look at the EURO Seasonal Model… September - November Precipitation Forecast While the three month ...
el nino

El Niño update

Time to check in on our old friend, and see what he is up to… The graphic below shows current sea surface temperature anomalies. A couple of things to note, before I show you what it looked like earlier this year: 1) The warmest water in the ENSO region is ...
rainfall

Rainfall… How are we doing?

Time to take a little stock in regard to how much rain we’ve had over the past 60 days. The map below shows totals since late April… Here is that represented in terms of above or below average… You can see that most of Texas is doing ok. There are ...